Grid operators issued emergency measures as frigid weather, fuel constraints, and soaring demand strained power systems from the Midwest to New England.
Power plant outages spiked across the eastern United States over the weekend as restricted natural gas supplies and bitterly cold temperatures sharply reduced electricity generation, forcing grid operators to take emergency actions to stabilize the system.
The strain was most pronounced within PJM Interconnection, the nation’s largest regional power grid, which serves roughly 67 million people across the Mid-Atlantic and parts of the Midwest. PJM reported nearly 21 gigawatts of generation outages on Sunday, most of it forced offline, amounting to about 16% of afternoon electricity demand, which stood at 127.4 gigawatts.
PJM Issues Pre-Emergency Order as Demand Rises
By Sunday afternoon, PJM issued a pre-emergency load management order, requiring some customers enrolled in its curtailment program to reduce electricity usage. Participants in the program are compensated for cutting consumption during critical grid conditions.
The move was designed to ease an unexpected surge in demand while also urging some power generators to conserve operating time ahead of even colder weather forecast later in the week.
“Without native supplies of natural gas, the Eastern seaboard relies on a pipeline network that is historically constricted during extended bouts of frigid weather,” said Pieter Mul, a grid expert and associate partner at PA Consulting’s energy and utilities practice.
Natural Gas Constraints Expose System Vulnerabilities
Domestic U.S. natural gas demand, excluding exports, was estimated at 146.7 billion cubic feet per day, down slightly from Saturday but still ranking as the 10th-highest level on record.
While the current winter storm has not yet matched the severity of past events, such as Winter Storm Uri (2021) or Winter Storm Elliott (2022), analysts warned the risk remains elevated.
“From a natural gas production and price perspective, the current U.S. winter storm so far is less severe than prior storms,” said Matthew Palmer, head of Americas Gas Research at S&P Global Energy. “But the risk isn’t over, with sustained cold lingering behind the storm.”
Mul added that PJM’s outages exceeded what grid planners had anticipated, noting the system has less flexibility than in previous years due to power plant retirements and a surge in electricity demand from data centers.
Transmission Bottlenecks and Renewable Losses Add Pressure
Grid congestion further complicated matters. Transmission bottlenecks limited PJM’s ability to move electricity from west to east, even as parts of Illinois experienced negative power prices driven by abundant wind generation that could not be exported to higher-demand areas.
At the same time, snow and heavy cloud cover reduced solar generation across major cities including Boston, New York, Philadelphia, and Washington, D.C., removing another source of daytime power.
Power Prices Spike Across Eastern Grids
Electricity prices surged as demand outpaced forecasts. On Sunday afternoon:
- PJM, New York, and New England power prices jumped to between $400 and $700 per megawatt-hour
- In Virginia, real-time wholesale prices topped $1,800 per megawatt-hour, up from about $200 the day before
Virginia is home to the world’s largest concentration of data centers, which support artificial intelligence and cloud computing, and have become a major driver of rising electricity demand.
ISO New England reported demand of 20.2 gigawatts Sunday afternoon, exceeding its projected peak of 19.5 GW. With natural gas supplies constrained, nearly 40% of the region’s power came from oil-fired generators, while gas accounted for just 30%, an unusual reversal for the region.
Fuel Risks and Shrinking Reserve Margins
Grid officials warned that reliance on oil carries its own risks.
“As hazardous winter conditions persist, diesel and fuel oil supplies can be depleted and are not easily replenished,” Mul noted.
ISO New England’s surplus capacity dropped to about 1.1 gigawatts, down sharply from earlier estimates of several gigawatts. The grid operator issued an “abnormal conditions” alert, urging power plant operators to avoid maintenance or any actions that could further reduce reliability.
Millions Lose Power as Winter Storm Fern Advances
The demand spike began late Saturday as Winter Storm Fern swept across parts of the country. PJM is now forecasting an all-time winter demand record on Tuesday, projecting demand of 147.2 gigawatts, which would surpass the previous record of 143.7 GW set in January 2025.
At the local level, power disruptions were already widespread. Nearly 1 million customers were without electricity Sunday, according to PowerOutage.us, including:
- More than 300,000 in Tennessee
- Over 100,000 each in Mississippi, Texas, and Louisiana
Kentucky, Georgia, Virginia, and Alabama were also affected.
In Texas, grid operator ERCOT forecast peak demand of 85.1 gigawatts for Monday morning, compared with nearly 100 GW of seasonal capacity. Day-ahead market data showed electricity prices could exceed $1,000 per megawatt-hour.
A Test for the U.S. Power Grid
As frigid temperatures persist and electricity demand continues to surge, grid operators across the country are bracing for what could be one of the most challenging winter reliability tests in years, one shaped not only by extreme weather, but also by fuel constraints, aging infrastructure, and rapidly growing demand from energy-intensive industries.